Eagles-Packers Playoff Preview
Andy Reid's #1 seeded 12-4 Eagles open up their fourth consecutive playoff series this Sunday against the storied three time Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers. Having won the NFC East three straight seasons, the Eagles enter this year's playoffs against the last team to have won their division that many consecutive times ('95-97). With temperatures forecasted near freezing with a gentle wind, this weekend's game is sure to be a dandy (aside from the tv folks having to listen to Chris Collingsworth).
The 4-3 playoff tested Reidian Eagles will have their hands full against their toughest matched team from this year's playoff pool. Green Bay's excellent run offense (3rd in NFL) will face off against Philadelphia's wearied run defense (22nd), while the Eagles' red hot pass offense will confront the Pack's poor pass defense (23rd). The Eagles offense must get out to an early start (10-0 when scoring in first quarter) to keep the 12th man on fire and with a lead minimize Green's impact as the game progresses.
Fellow Eagle fans, this game could be won or lost on the front lines. The Eagles were dominated on both sides of the ball in November by two superior lines. They were unable to get much of any run game (~3.1 yds/carry) going against Grady Jackson and company, while McNabb was hurried often (although sacked only once). McNabb's recent great numbers have been due in part to good pass protection. This trend must continue on Sunday, where any more than two sacks could spell trouble for the most critical part (passing) of the Eagles' offense that has averaged less than two sacks per game in the last eight. And, with an Emmons-less set of linebackers, the defensive line must close some of the running gaps to less than three yards wide. Look for JJ to plug the run with the help of punishing tacklers Lewis and Dawkins until Favre can beat the corners in man coverage. Green Bay's three tight end set is simply too much for our injured D-line.
Unlike November's matchup in Lambeau, Green Bay will protect the ball better and score more touchdowns. In fact, over the last two months of football, the Packers have averaged 0.5 fumbles/game vs. 1.6 prior to that. And, Brett Favre is much healthier and has proven over his career that he - aside from three mulligan games this year - is one of the least intercepted quarterbacks to have played the game (top 30 of 140 with 15k or more career passing yards). The Eagles will be required to win the stingy turnover battle this weekend, which has yielded a perfect 7-0 record for the Eagles this year (and an overall nearly 0.800 winning percentage for the league's turnover winners). McNabb must not throw an interception and Mahe would better call for a fair catch on every punt than drop the ball a single time.
Special teams will be the final critical factor on Sunday. With the best overall special teams in the league, the Eagles certainly get the slight advantage here (even without Westbrook). However, field goals will be the most important of the special teams - a category in which both GRB and PHI have solid kickers. While Big Daddy does not think this will be a field goal bonanza, he does think the game will come down to a field goal difference in score. In the last 8 games against Green Bay (dating back to 1992), 5 of the games have been decided by three or less points (several coming down to missed field goal attempts). Big Daddy is demanding a Pro-Bowl worthy performance by Akers in Sunday's game.
Eagle fans, thwart all memories of last year's game against the other Bay team. Put your faith in Andy Reid this weekend. The guy is a winner and has shown improvement in every aspect of his game over the past five years. His one area of remaining concern - ability to change the game plan on the fly - won't be a factor this weekend. Pass-happy Andy will not require change when McNabb brings his A-game. Expect Reid - the best head coach in Eagle history - to outduel one of Green Bay's top coaches of all-time (in fact, the only one who has coached the Pack to 40 wins in only 4 seasons) and McNabb to take the crown from Favre. For, it's on to Houston, Eagle fans!
Other Notables to Consider (if you're not out of breathe by now):
- Don't fear the injuries this weekend. The Eagles played essentially without Westbrook in the November MNF matchup, who was coming off an injury and only carried five times for 1 total yards (no receptions). Also the Eagles did not have Dawkins or Bobby Taylor in the first matchup. Those two will cover the adjustemnts required to compensate for Emmons's absence.
- Don't fear Favre's "extra fire of destiny." Many of his recent numbers have been against mediocre cover cornerbacks, where the Raiders and Seahawks lost a bunch of jump balls. The Eagles' corners (even Lito if necessary) will step up here.
- In the last matchup with Green Bay, the Packers did not even get in the Eagles Red Zone. Additionally, the Eagles' red zone offense is third in the NFC. They will score points!!!
- Even though the Packers came out of last week with no injuries, the Eagles had rest. Not only are the Eagles 6-0 after a bye week under Reid (with one of those in the playoffs last year), but we all know the statistics since 1990, when the NFL went to the 12 playoff team format: NFC #1 seeds are undefeated after the first round bye and only two times have the two NFC bye teams failed to advance to the championship game.
- Finally, don't get all freaked out about the aura of "The Packers." While the overall series is 11-22, the Eagles did capture their 1960 NFL Championship from the pack in Lambeau and have dominated the Packers in Philly since 1962, winning all five contests. And, since my birth, the Eagles have a winning record against the Packers at 9-6 (7-3 in seasons where the Eagles were 0.500 or better).