Works Sucks Special

OK. The following people are in for the Phillies game on the 26th. OB, Wood, Sean Smith, Shana, Walt Svekla, Jeff Pelly. We will be sitting in the $15 terrace. Anyone else who wants in put your name in contacts. I will buy the Tickets on Monday. Remember it is dollar dog day. And this dude will be there.

A moment to note

I meant to post this after it happened but didn't get around to it until now. On March 21, 2007, 21 seconds into the first period the Flyers hit rock bottom.



After the fight the Flyers went on to lose 5-0 to the weak and hated NY Rangers.

Since then they have signed Biron to a 2 year deal, which hopefully is the first of several moves that help turn this team around. Also Hatcher is turning into Tim Kerr scoring his 3rd goal vs. Carolina, which puts him 1 goal behind Pitkanen's 4 for the year. Pitkanen sucks.

WWEW Buisness Person's Special Trip

I am proposing a trip to Citizens Bank Park to see the Phillies take on the Washington Nationals on April 26th. Not only is it a business person special (work sucks), it is college ID discount day (Ron be sure to use that Penn State ID yet again) and Eric Gregg Memorial Phillies' franks dollar dog day (Sean Smith). Anyone interested? Schedule here.

Tournament Time

Deadline to make picks is Thursday, March 15, 12:10pm EST.

The Flyers are dead, the Sixers are losing by winning, the Eagles are bleeding good players in free agency, and the Phillies are inflating our hopes but we all know better. So don't miss your chance to distract yourself from the perpetual misery of Philadelphia sports by rooting for teams from other parts of the country.

Once again I set up "team" willweeverwin over at Yahoo! First go to Yahoo's Tournament Pick'em page and click "Join a Group". If you have a Yahoo ID, login. If not, follow the instructions and get one. Once logged in chose "Join Private".

Group ID#: 78763
Pass: probablynot

Where it says "Bracket Name" is where you would put your name. Then make your picks by the first game on Thursday, March 15. To keep track of your picks you can download the custom willweeverwin NCAA bracket PDF.

And like I said last year, the willweeverwin winner will experience the rare feeling of being a champion. Savor it. Because you won't get that from anywhere else.

Flyers have new look, same results

Flyers picked up two new defensemen, Braydon Coburn and and Lasse “Kooky” Kukkonen. According to known shill Steve Coates, Coburn is big but can skate. Kukkonen is supposedly like a smarter and surer, albeit lesser skilled, Pittkinen. The best part about the trade for Kooky is that “Mr. Minus”, Kyle Calder was sent packing. He will go down in the annuls of Flyer history along with Adam Oates and Chris Gratton. For some reason the Flyers also traded for soon to be free agent and Ray Emery punching bag, Marty Biron. Holgrem spoke to the media about the confusing Goalie situation

“He certainly would have been on our list come July 1. This is just an opportunity for us to jump the gun and get our hands on him quicker.”

Anyway on to the game.

Flyers started out like crap. Horrible play in their own zone plus give-aways made it 4-1 after the first period. Noted Flyer killer and the NHL’s ugliest man, Jason Blake scored a hat trick. The Flyers also gave up a 3 on 0 on a combination of a bad line change and Richards playing with the puck instead of getting it deep into the Islanders zone. It’s more likely to see a goalie score than see that rarest of defensive lapses, but with the Flyers, one never knows.

In the second period the Flyers scored early, but promptly gave up a goal to Chris Simon on yet another defensive breakdown. Todd Fedurok tried to reverse the team's fortunes by fighting Simon off the subsequent face-off, but lost in a rather exciting fight. Then Reid fought Asham and lost. However the fights did seem to energize the Flyers, and lead by Afanasenkov, outplayed the Islanders for the rest of the period, scoring once.

Amazingly the Flyers continued to play well in the third period, and with the help of some lucky bounces, tied the game. I guess the Flyers thought the comeback was victory enough, and were outplayed after Gagne scored to tie. Some great saves by Nittimaki kept the Islanders from winning in regulation. In OT the Flyers continues their poor play and finally the Islanders scored on a power play goal. The summary is here.

Notes: The top line was Gagne-Upshall-Carter which did did okay. York and Sanderson suck. York is useless and Sanderson constantly turns the puck over in the offensive zone. It was hard to tell if the Flyers played so poorly on defense because of the new guys, or that they just suck. Good Gagne quote on fighting.

“The last two years the fights are still there, but I think we should have a little bit more fighting,” he said. “It’s good for hockey and it’s good for the fans.”

Flyers lose Forsberg then lose the game

Good job Flyers. The one game I get to attend this year and you trade Forsberg and the only reason to watch this team minutes before it starts. And this time you didn't even get Eric Lindros in return. Instead you got another big defensemen but a prospect this time instead of a washed up senior citizen, one of Nashville's busts, and a couple of pucks, I mean picks. I realize Forsberg is an unrestricted free agent but I think you could have held out for more. But maybe you're just renting him like Pittsburgh did with Recchi and St. Louis did with Doug Weight since I don't see Forsberg living in Nashville longterm.

As far as the game, the Flyers seemed shocked by the trade and were in a daze in the first period, especially the 3rd string goalie who looked awful. I don't even know his name or have the motivation to look it up. So the Flyers were quickly down 3-0 in the first. Flyers did settle down and start to show up as the game progressed but too many times the Leafs looked like they were on a powerplay when they weren't. But maybe that was the Flyers strategy since their penalty kill is the only thing that is any good this year. Flyers did put the pressure on late in the third and even dominated that stretch of the game but the 3-0 hole was too deep to dig out of, especially without Forsberg, and they lost with mostly a whimper, 4-2. So after beating Detroit, one of the best teams in the league 6-1, they get easily handled by Toronto, a team currently out of the playoffs.

OTHER NOTES: Propp named Hatcher the 3rd star of the game. Forsberg jerseys were still on sale in the Fan Gear shop after the game. They never announced the trade in the building. The refs sucked. Nashville will probably join hockey hotbeds Tampa Bay and Carolina and be the next southern city to win a Stanley Cup. Great job Bettman. Expanding into those markets and having them win Cups has led to skyrocketing popularity of the NHL. Maybe Nashville will get over 20,000 at their parade.

Wing Bowl

Wing Bowl was held today. I hate to use the term "jump the shark" but this event had its heyday around 1999. The entrance of professional competitive eaters in recent years has served to seal its irrelevance. Still at least 20,000 people (and by people I mean 19,900 men and 100 women) out there are into this celebration of Angelo Cataldi's ego. But not blogger/borderline conspiracy theorist Will Bunch. Or national advertisers. Or anyone with half a brain who shuts off WIP when the Eagles exit the playoffs until the Phillies' open Spring training. Still some see hope for the Wing Bowl going forward:

"It could get to a point where it's family-friendly enough to attract decent crowds and make the advertiser feel safe enough to invest," author Jason Fagone said. "Or you could have somebody choke and die. It's happened a couple of times in Japan."

But in reality Wing Bowl is just an excuse for dudes to get drunk at 5:00 AM and check out some tits. Pro eater Joey Chestnut won again. Former champion El Wingador immediately announced he will come out of retirement to challenge Chestnut next year, giving the WIP morning team 12 months to bloviate about this greasy grudge match. More highlights are here. Finally Wing Bowl Commissioner Pat Croce pronounced this years event "Great!!" and "Fantastic!!", but hopes to improve next year's event by incorporating a pirate theme.

Who sucks more, the Flyers or their radio announcers?

I don't watch the Flyers games anymore but I listen to them on the radio. While the Eagles have Merrill Reese, the Phillies have Harry Kalas, and the Sixers have Tom McGinnis -- 3 of the best announcers you'll ever hear -- the Flyers have Tim Saunders and Brian Propp, 2 of the worst ever.

Going into the 3rd tied 2-2 Tim Saunders suggested the Flyers have turned the corner on their season. Twenty seconds later the Flyers get yet another penalty and Propp is excited because he thinks the Flyers are going to score a 3rd shorthanded goal. i cant take these clowns. But the best was yet to come.

After the Flyers predictably blew another third period lead and headed into another shootout where they would inevitably lose, Propp's brilliant analysis going in was, "If you win the shootout you feel like you won the game. If you lose the shootout you feel like you lost."

No shit.

Starting at the Top

Is Gary Bettman the reason today's hockey sucks compared to the game back in the day? Dan Wetzel seems to think so. Wetzel also thinks he is the most incompetent executive this side of Ken Lay.

I could write a book about Bettman's insulting and imbecilic moves through the years (Chapter 9: "The Glowing Puck") but the main problem has always been the same. He has shown no respect for the game, for its history, for its fans, for its unique qualities.

Wetzel composes this excellent analogy:

since fighting has been curbed, the "new" rivalries haven't really taken because a hockey rivalry without fighting is like non-alcoholic beer.

While Bettman is responsible for a large portion of the downward trajectory of NHL hockey, he is only able to wreak his havoc via the approval of narrow minded, greedy, and petty owners like those in Chicago and Boston.

The Flyers lost in a shoot out last night. I missed most of the game. I saw a nice goal on a delayed penalty promptly followed by a Tampa PP goal. Flyers looked like shit for the first 10 minutes of the third, then they looked great for the last 10 minutes. Game was winable (Hatcher's missing of the net in OT was particularly frustrating), but the Flyers lost in a shoot out. The impartial Steve Coates said the Flyers dominated the second period, but I need verification. Still, this is now 5 competitive games in a row. Will we be seeing some actual victories soon? Finally, did Forsberg take more bad penalties this game?

Flyers lose to Rangers, 2-1

Really the Flyers could of won this game. Not like they should have won the Devils game before the All-Star break, but could have won, as in they played like a real NHL team. They still took too many penalties, like 5 in the first period alone. They did score a nice goal and threw a lot of good body checks. Esche was solid. Gauthier was back and looked ok. Foresberg did not have a good game, turning the puck over on numerous occassions and taking dumb ass penalties. Sanderson still looks real rusty. Of course the highlight for Ron Wood happened a day earlier, when Todd Fedoruk let Joni Pittikinen know he sucks. This scuffle was praised by Coatsey, Jones, and Stevens.

What Am I Missing?

Listening to Eskin talk about "percentages," when the guy is a complete mathematical savant, boy, it's been brutal.

I love it when The Dope takes the fact that the odds are 1/39 in converting 4th and 15 or greater, based on this year's stats (which I don't think is an accurate way to get the probability, but that's a different issue), and then proceeds to say that it is even LESS likely than 1/39 since the Eagles converted 4-10 on the play before with the false start penalty. Man, I'd love to gamble with this guy, as he clearly doesn't understand that the two events are independent of one another (unless you think they really only had a single play in their whole playbook that was capable of getting 15yds, which is absurd). Let's see, Eskin, the odds of rolling two sixes in a row is 1/36. If I just rolled a six, will you give me 36:1 payoff if i roll another one? Heck, I'll take 7:1 payoff and play that game all day long with you.

The simplest way to look at probabilities here is to realize that the two events of PRIMARY concern are:
1) odds of converting 4-15
OR
2) odds of holding nos 3 and out.

I'd argue that converting 4-15 against the saints defense is significantly more probable than holding a team to less than 10 yards on the ground when it has shredded your defense all game and only had one 3 and out in the second half. "Knowing" the run was coming didn't help the eagles all season long, and I have no idea what anybody was smoking while watching this recent game to think that was more probable than converting 4-15, particularly after your defense has been worn down for four quarters. You have to take a position that the odds of #2 are significantly greater than the odds of #1 to choose option 2. Why? Read on, as #1 has some nice second chances behind it if you think #2 is actually possible. #2 is a backup plan to start with.

Here's what the Saints would have been left (a second chance) with if the Eagles failed to convert 4-15 and could really hold the Saints to 3 and out (as some believe) after that:

a) NOS makes a FG with the line of scrimmage (LOS) no closer than the Eagles 30, at least a 47 yarder (no gimme), PHI -6, ball on their own 25ydline after a kickoff, 1min to go, 75 yard TD drive required. This would be tough for the Birds to pull off, obviously, especially as the field gets pretty short in those last 20 yds having to go for a TD vs. a FG.
b) NOS miss a FG with the LOS no closer than the Eagles 30, PHI-3, ball on their own 37yd line (or better), 1min to go, need to drive 30-35yds to get a FG. Considering the position this would have put PHI in (pretty good), you have to think NOS would have opted to punt, option c below.
c) NOS punts from the Eagles 39-30 yard line, PHI-3 gets the ball on their own 10ish yard line as long as the punter doesn't put it in the end zone, 1 min to go, need drive 60yds to get a FG.

I doubt the Saints would have gone for A, given the consequences (B) of a miss and the fact they were playing at home with a lead. They'd probably end up punting, and the Eagles would have been left trying for a 1 minute 60 yard drive for a FG. Compare that to where they would have been if they held the Saints after punting to them (as AR hoped): their own 40 yard line, -3, 1 min to go, needing 30-35 yards for a FG (oh and a chance that BWest makes a return miracle, but c'mon... you can't make part of your backup plan the primary plan... besides it leaves NOS a full minute on the clock against our sorry defense).

So, let's talk percentages here, then... I'll take one more shot at a first down at 4-15 with 2 TO's and 2 mins to go on the clock WITH the backup plan being a 60yd drive (assuming BWest can't return a 30 yd punt anywhere) plus FG with 1 minute on the clock. That's gotta be more favorable than starting with the backup plan but only having to only drive 30-35yds plus a FG with 1 minute on the clock (and give BWest a crack at a big return). You're risking only -25 yds for a chance to keep the ball in your offense's hands, retain two timeouts, and have an extra minute on the clock. Unbelievable still to me.

What Am I Missing? I keep hearing all this percentage talk, sometimes by football folks who are more knowledgeable than Eskin. I don't get it.

Free Agents

Shawn Barber, LB
Correll Buckhalter, RB
Reno Mahe, RB
Koy Detmer, QB
Jeff Garcia, QB
Roderick Hood, CB
William James, CB
Michael Lewis, SS
Quintin Mikell, FS
Donte' Stallworth, WR
Juqua Thomas, DE

These are the Eagles Free Agents. Who do you resign and who do you let go?

My Opinion: Barber is gone. He even sucks at special teams. Buckhalter did everything asked of him (wish they asked more) and seems to have recovered from his many injuries. Reno Mahe is going nowhere and knows the offense so he could be re-signed at the minimum or kept on the practice squad and activated as need be.

Garcia may or may not go somewhere else. The Eagles should make him an offer on principal but they are just asking for a QB controversy if re-ups. Feeley has done ok as a back up before. The thing is that McNabb may not be back for the start of the season. This means either Garcia or Feeley or Detmer starts the season. This is a very interesting situation. If McNabb is not ready for the start of the season then some combination of Garcia and Detmer must be signed.

Hood, Mikell and James are all weak and should be let go. Upgrades in the secondary are a must. Lewis will most likely sign elsewhere, but if he could be re upped at a back up/special teams rate I would do that. Stallworth and Thomas should be re-signed.

What In The Heck??????

...is the difference between 4-10 and 4-15 from your own 39?????? Put the ball in the opposing team's hands (a team that ran the ball down your throat all game)???? AR is a freakin' idiot. If you think your defense is gonna stop them, then why not go for it (keep the ball in YOUR hands)? Why not, worst case (if you don't convert), stop them on your own 39 to 29, and let a FG happen (which as a 47yder isn't a gimmee anyway)???? Geez, this guy is a dope. He rightly gives the play calling over to MM, but he still can't situationally make the right calls for the team. MORON. OH, and screw the NFL, freakin' cheatin punks. All the calls. No, ALL the calls, right there for the illustrious city of misfortune. Unreal.

Take the over

1/13 8:00 PM ET	Opening	BoDog	Sportsbook	Pinnacle	WSEX	5Dimes
Philadelphia @ New Orleans	48 -4.5	49 -6	49 -5	49 -5	49 -5.5	49 -5.5

Matchup

BONUS QUESTION: Which team has improved the most since the regular season game?

Just like old times

This game was more like one where McNabb was leading the Eagles more than the last couple under Garcia. Opening drive by Giants goes for a TD which was expected but not the offense struggling and being really tight and Garcia being McNabb like on (in)completing screen passes and starting the game with 3 straight 3 and outs. But the defense stiffened (except for that terrible drive that tied the game at 20 - 1st and 30? 3rd and 12? Pathetic) and Westbrook was the star of the game and the rest of the offense pitched in enough to win. So Eagles beat the Giants and Dallass choked it away in great fashion. Does it get any better (other than winning a Super Bowl)?

OTHER NOTES: I guess Detmer earned his money and Reid is a genius for getting him back. They need to create a Pro Bowl spot for Detmer. Oh yeah, great kicking Akers. On the Giants side, Feagles was great punting it in the first quarter. Also on the Giants side, Tiki was good in his last game. I like the guy but won't miss him. On Mahe's 5 yard punt returns there is never a penalty, only on Westbrook's when he takes it all the way back. The only pass downfield all game was the Stallworth TD right before the half. And how about that, another drive before the half for points! And a drive at the end of the game to win it, eating up all the clock! Amazing. Where were the tight ends? LJ Smith was thrown the ball once twice. Schoebel caught one on the game winning drive for the his only catch. Shockey sucks. Dawkins would have picked that pass Howard tipped. How about that Dawkins Mexican wrestler tackle? Best joke of the season was Aikman mentioning that Tapeh caught the pass while they were talking about bald guys and comb overs. Reid answering, "The wire" to "What's this game going to come down to?" was a good one too. How about the blocking downfield on Westbrook's run? Westbrook's run kind of reminded me of Montgomery's vs. Dallass in 1981, the last time the Eagles beat an NFC team in the playoffs.